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Ask the expert: What’s ahead for fuel, food and fall harvest

By: David Ortega 


Fuel prices have surged to some of the highest levels on record. As of late-September, the national average for regular gasoline stood at about $4.48 per gallon, more than a dollar higher than a year ago, according to AAA. Diesel has moved even faster, hitting an all-time record of $6.53 per gallon nationally, more than 70% higher than a year earlier. Michigan set its own diesel record this week at $6.89, and the increases are arriving just as farmers across the state head into the fall harvest.


David Ortega, the Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy at Michigan State University, explains what is behind the run-up in fuel prices, why diesel matters so much for agriculture and the food supply, and what would need to happen for prices to come down.


Fuel prices have been climbing recently. What is driving this?

The short answer is war and refining capacity. Since late February, the conflict with Iran has severely disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that normally handles about one fifth of the oil the world uses each day. Attacks on refineries and export infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, along with strikes on Russian refineries in the Russia-Ukraine war, have taken offline a significant amount of capacity. Russia has banned diesel exports, and Red Sea shipping has been disrupted as well.


This is why the situation is different from a typical oil price spike. Even when crude oil is available, the world has lost a meaningful share of its ability to turn that crude into finished refined fuels like gasoline and diesel. And there is little slack left domestically to make up the difference. U.S. refineries are running at roughly 94% of capacity. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel inventories are running about 12% below their five-year average. Crude prices hovering around $100 per barrel are only part of the story.


Why does diesel matter so much beyond the truck stop?

Diesel is the workhorse fuel of the economy. Semitrucks, freight trains, barges and farm machinery run on it. Most consumers never buy a gallon of diesel, but almost everything they do buy moved on diesel at some point, often several times, between production and the store shelf.


The impact is largest for products that are heavy relative to their value, where freight makes up a big share of the final price. When diesel costs jump, trucking firms and railroads pass those costs along through fuel surcharges, and those surcharges eventually reach store shelves.


Which goods and services will consumers feel this in most?

Agricultural commodities and food are near the top of the list. Fresh produce, dairy and meat often travel long distances in refrigerated trucks that burn energy both to move and to keep products cold. Fuel costs are built into every step of the food supply chain, from hauling grain and livestock to processing, distribution and final delivery, so sustained diesel increases eventually reach the grocery store. Anything delivered to your door is affected too since carriers add fuel surcharges that flow into shipping costs for households and businesses alike.


Heavy, low value products are especially exposed because transportation is a large share of what you pay for them. Building materials are another example, as they are expensive to move relative to their price. The same logic applies to bottled beverages, canned goods, appliances and other bulky items.


Finally, this reaches beyond diesel itself. Diesel, jet fuel and heating oil are closely linked products, so a broad supply squeeze can also raise aviation and heating-fuel costs. Heating demand ramps up just as harvest winds down, which is one reason fuel markets are likely to stay tight in the coming months.


What does this mean for farmers right now?

The timing could hardly be worse. We are in the heart of fall harvest, when combines, tractors, grain carts and trucks run long hours moving crops from fields to storage and elevators. Unlike some expenses and activities, harvest cannot be postponed. A crop has to come out of the field regardless of what fuel costs, so farmers largely have to absorb the increase. Fuel also shows up indirectly through fertilizer delivery, custom harvesting, livestock hauling and the freight charges built into nearly every input. This lands on operations that were already managing tight margins after several years of elevated costs for fertilizer, seed, chemicals and equipment. For many farms, fuel will be one of the defining costs of 2026 profitability.


Will this show up in grocery prices?

Yes, though it takes time and increases will be moderate, and understanding why helps explain what consumers will see over the next several months. Early on, much of the cost increase gets absorbed along the supply chain through existing freight contracts and retailer margins. But as contracts reprice and fuel surcharges take hold, more of that cost makes its way to the grocery store. The same dynamic applies to other products that move by truck and rail, which is why the full effect of record diesel prices is still ahead of us even if fuel prices stopped rising today. That said, fuel is a single digit share of overall food costs at retail, so I do not expect major spikes at the grocery store. But these pressures come on top of several years of elevated food prices, and they fall hardest on low-income households who spend a larger share of their income on food.


I would also caution consumers about expecting food prices to fall rapidly once fuel costs ease. Food prices are downward sticky. They rise quickly when costs go up but rarely decline in a sustained way. The more realistic hope is that the pace of increase slows, not that pricesreturn to where they were.


When is this going to end? What would need to happen for pricesto come down?

The honest answer is that no one can say with certainty, but we know what recovery requires. Two things have to happen. First, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea needs to return to something like normal so crude and refined fuels can reach world markets. Second, and this is the part that takes longer, damaged refining capacity has to be repaired or replaced. Refineries are complex facilities, and rebuilding lost capacity takes time.


The president has said fuel prices will fall right after the November election. What does the election have to do with it? And would an export ban on diesel help?

There is no switch that flips on Election Day. Fuel prices are set by global supply and demand. Even a swift end to the conflict would not restore refining capacity overnight. If shipping lanes reopen, crude prices would likely fall. But diesel relief would take longer because the refining shortfall persists. Consumers and businesses are better served planning around those physical realities than around any specific date.


An export ban won’t fix high diesel prices. It might lower them briefly by keeping exported barrels at home. But it creates no new fuel. It pulls supply out of an already tight global market, and refiners who lose their export outlets could respond by processing less crude. This would lead to higher prices down the road.


What’s the bottom line?

Fuel prices, and diesel in particular, are at historic highs because war-related disruptions have taken a large share of global shipping and refining capacity out of service at the same time. Those costs land first on the people who can least avoid them, including farmers in the middle of harvest and the trucking firms that move everything we buy. Over the coming months, they will continue working into food, construction and consumer prices. Relief will come when shipping and refining recover, and that timeline remains genuinely uncertain. Households and businesses should plan for elevated fuel costs in the coming months and be wary of any promise that prices will drop on a particular date.


(courtesy story)

Stabenow shares vision for future of food and farm policy at MSU

By: Kim Ward 


EAST LANSING, Mich. - Former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a two-time Michigan State University graduate, delivered the second annual Stuckman Lecture in Food Economics and Policy, drawing on five decades of public service to explore the forces shaping American agriculture and the challenges ahead.

“Sen. Stabenow has done so much for Michigan and the agricultural community through her leadership of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, and we’re honored that she shared her insights on good food and good governance with us,” said MSU President Kevin M. Guskiewicz, Ph.D.  “We appreciate her ongoing partnership with MSU also as a member of our Green and White Council, lending her insight and helping us better prepare today’s students for high-impact careers.” 


Hosted by the Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics in the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, the lecture, “The Future of Food and Farm Policy,” explored how public policy, funding, research and markets can work together to strengthen the nation’s food economy and build a more resilient future for producers, consumers and rural communities.


“Few people have shaped how this country grows, buys and eats its food more than Sen. Stabenow,” said David Ortega, who holds the Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy. “She has seen the Farm Bill from every angle, and she understands both the economics and the human stakes. Hearing that perspective at MSU, where so much of the research behind these policies happens, was a rare opportunity for our students and our community.”


Stabenow served 50 years in public office as a county commissioner, state legislator, congresswoman and U.S. senator, and was the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Michigan. As chair or ranking member of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry from 2011 until her retirement in 2025, she led the passage of more Farm Bills than any other member of Congress serving at the time.

In 2008, she authored the Farm Bill’s first specialty crop title, extending federal support to growers of fruits, vegetables, hops and nursery plants — a shift especially meaningful for Michigan, which ranks second in the nation for crop diversity. She also championed historic investments in land and water conservation and strengthened nutrition programs that serve millions of families.


During her lecture, Stabenow outlined three goals she believes should guide every Farm Bill: keeping farmers farming, keeping families fed and keeping rural communities strong. In introducing Stabenow, Ortega recalled that his connection with her office began in 2013, his first year on the MSU faculty, when her staff sought out his research on China. A decade later, she invited him to testify before the Senate Agriculture Committee.


“I remember thinking they must have called the wrong person — I was a brand-new assistant professor,” Ortega said. “But it told me how seriously she and her team took the issues facing Michigan agriculture. They went looking for the evidence, wherever it was.”


He also described her official portrait in the committee’s hearing room. Unlike the formal portraits of past chairs, Stabenow’s shows her at an autumn farm stand surrounded by apples, pumpkins, fresh produce and two dairy cows.


“When she chose how she wanted to be remembered as chair, she chose Michigan agriculture,” Ortega said.


 The lecture series and the Stuckman Chair are made possible by Noel Stuckman, an MSU alumnus who spent 30 years with the Michigan Farm Bureau working alongside farmers and agricultural leaders across the state. Stuckman and his wife, Sandy, attended the event.


“Sen. Stabenow knows Michigan agriculture as few others do: both the challenges of this moment, and the opportunities that lie before us,” said Matt Daum, associate provost and dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources. “Thanks to the generous support of Noel and Sandy Stuckman, this series brings that kind of hard-earned wisdom to our campus and our community — and it’s on offer to all of us.”


In a world where information arrives in sound bites and “snackable content,” Daum challenged attendees to set that aside and spend the evening focused on something substantial.


Following her remarks, Stabenow joined Ortega for a moderated conversation drawing on questions submitted by audience members. Ortega asked her to reflect on her distinguished career before turning to the impacts of cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development, how to navigate reductions in research funding and the challenges facing the Farm Bill. When MSU students asked what advice she had for those hoping to pursue careers in food and agricultural policy, her answer was simple: "Do it!"

Looking ahead, Ortega said the series will continue to bring leading voices to campus to help the public understand the economic and policy forces behind the food on their tables.


“Food prices, trade, farm incomes, nutrition programs — these issues are in the headlines constantly, but the connections between them aren’t always clear,” he said. “As a land-grant university, MSU has a responsibility to create spaces where research, policy and the public meet. This event showed how much appetite there is for that conversation.”


For those in attendance, the message of the evening was clear: The decisions made in Washington reach every farm field, grocery aisle and kitchen table — and Michigan State will keep helping shape them.


(courtesy story)

MSU AI innovation supports 2.2M US workers exposed to toxic dust

By: Dalin Clark, Deon Foster 


From coal miners and construction crews to engineered stone countertop fabricators and foundry workers, more than 2.2 million U.S. workers inhale fine particles of rock, sand or coal every day on the job. After years of exposure, trapped dust can cause thick scar tissue to build up inside the lungs leading to long-term lung damage commonly known as black lung or silicosis.


Early diagnosis helps organizations know how to care for their employees, so regular chest X-rays are required. Because the particles that get trapped in lungs are very small, the X-rays are reviewed by specially trained physicians known as B readers. In the U.S. right now, there are just 200 B readers, which is a massive shortage.


To offer workers faster protection, researchers from Michigan State University organized a specialized dataset of U.S. worker scans to train an artificial intelligence, or AI, program. Funded by a $600,000 grant from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, or NIOSH, this is the first tool of its kind built specifically using images from U.S. workers. MSU’s study was published in Occupational and Environmental Medicine.


“For workers in dusty environments, time is everything,” said Kenneth Rosenman, chief of the Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine within the MSU College of Human Medicine and a certified B reader. “If a worker’s lung disease goes undetected because of screening delays, they may remain in a high-dust environment, and their lungs will continue to scar. By giving doctors an objective second opinion, this tool helps us catch disease at the early stage, allowing employers to remove workers from dangerous dust and reduce the likelihood of the workers’ lung disease from progressing.”


Lung damage from dust develops slowly over 10 to 20 years and many workers do not realize their health is at risk until they begin experiencing severe breathing trouble. Crucially, once dust damages lung tissue, the scarring cannot be cured or reversed.


Early screening is the best way to ensure workplace dust controls are effective. This helps protect workers’ health before lung damage turns life-threatening. Spotting the disease in its earliest stages enables workers to transition to safer, dust-free roles before symptoms worsen and can prompt employers to install stronger ventilation systems to stop dust at the source. It also enables access to medical care to manage symptoms and prevent dangerous lung infections and secures eligible financial compensation for affected workers.


Every coal miner, for example, needs routine lung scans every five years, creating massive backlogs that delay necessary care. Compounding the issue, roughly 95% of routine workplace scans show healthy lungs, meaning specialists spend significant time reviewing clear images rather than focusing on sick patients. Early scarring from dust is difficult to see, leading to frequent disagreement and inconsistency among human readers.


“In medical imaging, the biggest challenges include a large volume of scans, challenging tasks, very few specialized doctors and decisions that carry a life-changing impact,” said Adam Alessio, professor in the departments of Computational Mathematics, Science and Engineering, jointly administered by the colleges of Engineering and Natural Science, Biomedical Engineering in the College of Engineering, and Radiology in the College of Human Medicine. “The early signs of dust-related lung disease are extremely subtle, far beyond what standard visual inspections pick up. Having a smart screening tool act as a copilot helps certified readers process these critical scans faster and more consistently.”


The MSU researchers demonstrated that their new program acts as an accurate, high-speed assistant across four distinct screening tasks. The program safely identified and cleared about half of all normal X-rays, removing healthy scans from the queue so human experts can immediately focus on workers showing early signs of illness. In addition, the software achieved 91% accuracy at spotting the earliest dots of lung scarring, outperforming human readers who averaged 77%. To assist clinicians, the program overlays a simple color map on the X-ray image so doctors can clearly see where early lung damage was detected. This provides fast reviews that serve as second opinions for the B readers so that workers can receive earlier results and documentation.


“As researchers with backgrounds in statistics and technology, we saw a clear opportunity to use AI tools to solve a massive health problem,” said Ling Wang, associate professor in the Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine within the College of Human Medicine. “Because early signs of lung damage are so subtle, even experienced human doctors often disagree on what they see. Our goal was to train an AI tool that could act as a reliable second opinion, helping doctors catch tiny details they might miss and getting sick workers out of harm’s way before the disease progresses.”


The MSU research team includes doctoral students Meiqi Liu, Zenas Huang and Ian Loveless as well as undergraduate student Michal Borek. Together, the scientists are partnering with NIOSH to package the technology into an application for widespread use.


(courtesy story)

MDHHS awards $1.5 million for community violence intervention efforts

LANSING, Mich. –  To help organizations address community violence, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) has awarded $1.5 million to five organizations through a competitive grant process. 


“All Michigan residents should feel safe in their homes, schools and communities,” said Amy Epkey, MDHHS acting director. “This funding will help support local organizations as they work to prevent violence and reduce its adverse outcomes in their local communities.” 


Funding was provided to advance and strengthen community violence intervention (CVI) services for groups with the highest likelihood of involvement in firearm violence. Proposals were prioritized for programs with measurable activities aimed at reducing firearm violence, while integrating public health and public safety, in the following counties: Genessee (Flint), Ingham (Lansing), Saginaw, Berrien (Benton Harbor/Benton Township) and Wayne (Detroit).  


Five organizations were each awarded $300,000 to support two-year projects starting Sept. 1, 2026, through Sept. 30, 2028. 

  • Present Pillars, Benton Harbor, will focus on reducing nonfatal shootings and homicides in the 49022 ZIP code by defining the local problem, identifying the people and places at highest risk, building a coordinated response system, intervening directly with those most likely to be involved in firearm violence and using data for continuous improvement. 
  • Crim Fitness Foundation, Flint, will focus on neighborhoods and ZIP codes experiencing the highest concentrations of firearm violence. The initiative will be implemented in partnership with the Greater Flint Community Safety Collaborative, convened by the Community Foundation of Greater Flint, and will integrate violence interruption readiness, credible messenger development, conflict mediation, community engagement, trauma-informed support and implementation planning for long-term sustainability. 
  • HELP (Healing, Engagement, Love and Presence) Community Violence Intervention Program, Saginaw, will implement a strategy designed to interrupt cycles of firearm violence, prevent retaliation, address trauma and reduce risk factors associated with violent injury among youth and young adults.  
  • Detroit Life is Valuable Everyday (DLIVE) will use the Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Program model to focus on the post-injury window when reinjury, retaliation and mortality risk are highest and most modifiable by providing intensive case management, wraparound support and victim services. 
  • Detroit Peoples Community (The Peoples Action) will implement five evidence-informed CVI strategies: street outreach and violence interruption; intensive case management, trauma-informed healing services; workforce development fellowships; and CVI infrastructure enhancement. Services will focus primarily on Detroit ZIP codes 48219 and 48235. 

Community violence, which includes homicide and nonfatal shootings, causes substantial harm and trauma to communities across Michigan, especially in racially segregated and historically disinvested neighborhoods. Community violence continues to be a significant and growing public health problem. People who live in communities experiencing violence are at a higher risk for developing chronic diseases and may have limited opportunities to engage in healthy behaviors, such as using recreational spaces and accessing healthy food outlets.  


(courtesy story)

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